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Unquestionably, the foreign exchange or Forex market is the largest financial market in the world. This results in fair prices and narrow spreads. There are no restrictions to sell currencies short, unlike stocks, which have to be sold short on an up tick rule. This means that as a Forex trader you can make money just as easily in rising and falling markets. Stock liquidity is reduced after regular trading hours. Foreign exchange trading does not exhibit this problem because the currency market is open around the clock.

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Online forex trading training is convenient because you can choose which topics to study or pay particular attention to. You can decide which time of day or night to study or participate in online discussion of the curriculum.
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In its simplest form pivot point trading is based on these two tendencies and is also knows as "trading between the lines". The most popular and hence the most successful form of pivot trading is based on reversals. Simply put, when price approaches a pivot above, a trader waits for a reversal at that point and sells. The opposite is true when price action is moving downward. The patient pivot trader waits for a bounce off the pivot of support and places an order to buy.
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What about Forecasting: Predicting current and future market trends using existing data and facts. Analysts rely on technical and fundamental statistics to predict the directions of the economy, stock market and individual securities.
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How UBS came undone

Thu, 24 Apr 2008 10:13:42 EDT
UBS Chairman Marcel Rohner confirmed today what has been one of the worst kept secrets on Wall Street: An astounding $38 billion in subprime trading losses are forcing UBS to finally abandon its years-long dream of building a global investment bank.

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Currency prices are affected by a variety of economic and political conditions. The beginner trading forex currency should take note to probably the most important influences to the currency prices are interest rates, international trade, inflation, and political stability. Governments participate in the foreign exchange market to influence the value of their currencies. The governments flood the market with their domestic currency in an attempt to lower the currency price or conversely, buying in order to raise the price. This is generally known as central bank intervention. The beginner trading forex currency should be aware that large market orders can cause high volatility in currency prices. Due to the size and volume of the forex market its impossible for any entity to drive the market for any length of time.

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Forex currency trading is a form of trading that offers a much greater potential for profitability at the same time the risks are much greater. Foreign currency trading is trading based on the always fluctuating currencies of other countries and how they interact with each other. Since there is no single dollar value, as fluctuations in one foreign currency affects all others, foreign currency trading is always exciting and always changing directions.

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Experts who watch the oil market are split on which way oil prices are headed, and just how far. A little over a year ago, most pundits agreed that $40 a barrel was the upper limit for a barrel of crude oil. At the year's beginning, oil had already broken that point, and was selling at $42.50 a barrel. The vagaries of the weather, world politics and actual capacity to meet demands have fueled one of the most volatile pricing years in recent memory. At one point, the price of crude broke $70 a barrel, an increase of 65% over the beginning of the year. And while prices dropped for a short period, at the end of the year, they were still 45% higher than at the beginning of the year. Since the turn of the year, prices have begun their climb again, and the majority of traders believe that we won't see a reversal of that trend in the near future. The conservative predict a price of $80 per barrel. The more aggressive are calling it at $100.

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Asian Morning Update 29th April 2008

Mon, 28 Apr 2008 18:19:41 -0400
Action and reaction are equal and opposite

European releases overnight

April Forecast Actual
German Regional CPI (MoM) +0.2% - 0.22% (avg)
German Regional CPI (YoY) +2.8% +2.57% (avg)
Italian Business Confidence 88.5 86.9

Away from the limited releases which were broadly mixed for the Euro, the European Commission has forecast the economic slowdown will stretch into next year. Indeed, they also forecast a growth rate of just 1.5% next year as the broader impact of lower consumer demand and tighter credit restrictions.

I have no argument with that…

ECB members continue with the repetitive rhetoric of sharp swings in Forex rate being a concern (Trichet) emphasizing longer term goal of price stability. They continue to recognize the fact that the world financial system faces real financial crisis (Mersch) but of course it’s all America’s fault. European banks will be able to absorb the resultant losses he claims.

States news overnight:

There were a couple of regional Fed index numbers from Dallas and Chicago Midwest Factories, both sliding further but it was interesting that Dallas saw CAPEX rising by 1.8 to 4.5. In Chicago machinery output was up as was the resource sector output.

Elsewhere S&P warned that the declining conditions in the economy raise the chances of U.S. bank downgrades. They commented, “If this credit cycle becomes more extreme than prior cycles, which promises to be the case for the mortgage sectors, we could lower ratings for at least some of these institutions.”

I have always gone by one of Newton’s law of physics: “Action and reaction are equal and opposite.” Watch the financial markets and you’ll see the same is true. The more excessive a trend moves the more excessive the resultant reversal.

Reference the Japanese economic bubble of the 1980’s. Now reference the globalization bubble. It is difficult to assess just how extreme globalization trend became. We can see the impact of the excesses in the financial markets which has burst with a resounding bang. As for industry the entire picture is less clear because of the wide reach into developing countries.

It did represent a series of swathing changes in global business but just what risks were taken are less clear. Just how much there was reliance on cheap funding, leverage and relatively low inflation is an unknown factor. As we move into higher inflation and higher infrastructure costs including oil prices the impact is far less certain. However, there will be impact.

As for currency levels tomorrow’s FOMC and Q1 GDP will continue to provide an overhang on the market’s desire to open risk. Yesterday was a particularly flat day and today risks the same.

If there is any potential move then it seems more likely for the Dollar to drift back lower as Friday’s long positions are squared ahead of the results. The high degree of uncertainty over whether the U.S. will actually register negative growth and just what the Fed will do and subsequently say regarding the future course of interest rates is big enough to cause most to prefer to sit and watch TV than play around with positions in a thinner than normal market.

However, perhaps “inaction and reaction are equal and opposite” with the resultant risk that the end of the week will see a much stronger reaction…

More later once the daily analysis has been done…

The following releases are due from Asia due today:

Australian HIA New Home Sales (MoM)
Q1 NAB Business Confidence

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